Tag: India Elections 2009

Trivandrum Poll Prediction by an Auto Driver

Today I asked an auto rickshaw driver in Trivandrum about his thoughts on the results of upcoming elections in Trivandrum constituency. It is really amazing to see the common man’s political awareness. This man (who must be in his mid 40s) predicted that Neelalohita Das will win from Trivandrum. He said everyone he talked to also said the same thing. He gave me the following reasons.

Neelan belongs to the Nadar community which is very strong in the rural areas of Trivandrum. Nadars were not given seats by both LDF and UDF. So regardless of their political affinity, this time they will make sure that a Nadar wins and that is going to benefit Neelan.

[ My thought: Seems right. This time Neelalohita Das is contesting from a BSP ticket, so some Dalit votes would also go in favor of him. ]

Trivandrum seat belongs to CPI. CPM has in-house issues with CPI in LDF. This internal split will show up in the voting. So there is a possibility that CPM voters might also vote for Neelan.

[ My thought: It is possible. CPM will not vote for Congress or BJP anyway, but they would need CPI to fail because of the internal conflicts. So the only possible candidate that they can vote for is Neelan as he is now in a different party. Not only that, this will also secure their interests in the national politics as it will ultimately benefit the Third Front where BSP and CPM are allies. ]

BJP will have their votes anyway. Their vote bank won’t split. But they will only come to a fourth position (after BSP, Congress and CPI).

[ My thought: Seems true ]

Shashi Tharoor will come to a close second. He has a great impression on educated people. So the youngsters and the educated urban class would vote for him.

[ My thought: I agree ]

Then I asked him if it matters to him that Mr. Tharoor does not have the local political experience and came all in a sudden from abroad. He answered:

It doesn’t matter whether he is from here or he is aware of the local politics. What have those local politicians done to solve any of the local issues? Nothing much. He is also educated and have international experience which would benefit us if he gets in to the ministry in the center.

[ My thought: I agree with this too ]

The kind of analytics that this person has presented really surprised me. Not only that, he actually spent time to talk to me during this busy evening, which shows how interested he is in the politics. And he did not take any sides too.

Church & Politics – An Un-Holy Alliance

churchandstateIt is not a secret that the Church in Kerala has always stood by the Congress party during elections. I have heard a story, that in the early days, during the Sunday sermon, the priest would raise his “hand” up in the air and say “every one should vote“. The raised hand was to indicate that the faithful should vote for Congress party, without openly campaigning for it. I am not sure how authentic this story is, but this was to point out the close alliance between the Congress party and the Church in Kerala.

In my days, I have seen politicians making frequent visits to the Vicars of Churches in their constituency as part of their campaigns. It was also during this time that the late Bishop of Thrissur, Mar. Joseph Kundukulam, compared K Karunakaran to Jesus Christ (I wrote an article in those days against the Bishop’s statement, in a handwritten magazine published by CLC – a Catholic youth organization). K Karunakaran’s friendship with Bishop Kundukulam was very infamous in those days.

Time flew and the Church softened it’s stand against Communists. But it did not last long. With the 7th standard text book and the self-finance college issues, the Church went on a rampant campaign against the Communists, under the leadership of Thrissur Archbishop Mar Andrews Thazhath and Changanassery Archbishop Mar Joseph Powathil. Now that the elections are approaching, different Churches in Kerala are taking different steps to make sure that they get a fair share of the political pie. But surprisingly, the Congress party chose not to play with the tunes of the Church.

First it was the Thrissur Archbishop, Mar Andrews Thazhath, who supported the candidature of Tom Vadakkan for Thrissur constituency. But the proposal was turned down by AICC, followed by a strong statement from the head of Syro-Malabar Church, Cardinal Mar Varkey Vithayathil. This statement has just added my respect to Mar Varkey Vithayathil, even though his is a lone voice in the Syro-Malabar Church supreme administration.

Cardinal Vithayahil, who is also the president of the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of India (CBCI) says it is wrong for bishops, priests and Church leaders to intervene in the selection of candidates during the elections.

”The Catholic Church and Christian leaders should not intervene in party politics. Church can ask the people to vote for the right candidates, but should not involve in electioneering and selection of candidates for particular constituencies,” Cardinal Vithayathil told reporters. [ via ]

The Latin Church, which is an influential force in Ernakulam and Thiruvananthapuram districts have gone a step further. The Varappuzha Archbishop, Daniel Acharuparambil, sent a list of four candidates to Sonia Gandhi. But Ramesh Chennithala, the Congress chief of Kerala, rejected the communal interference.

The letter was written by the Varapuzha Archbishop Daniel Acharuparambil, who is also President of the Kerala Regional Latin Catholic Council, the body that looks after the social and other activities of the church.

The church has given three other names. The list does not contain the names of sitting Ernakulam Congress legislator and former minister K.V. Thomas or former Congress legislator and former minister Dominic Presentation. [ via ]

The Orthodox Church went even further. When their candidate request was turned down by Congress party, the Orthodox Church in Kerala decided to put up four candidates on their own for the polls. Now this is something new as no Church in Kerala has openly placed it’s candidates in elections.

The Orthodox Church had sent a letter to Sonia Gandhi expressing its wish that one of its members, who are active Congress supporters, be fielded. George Joseph, secretary of the church, said that the Congress had not even acknowledged the letter, said a report from IANS. [ via ]

The Congress party and Sonia Gandhi have wisely turned down the proposals from the Church supremos in all these cases which is a good sign. Or else BJP would have used this chance to accuse the “Christian” Sonia Gandhi playing in tunes of the Church. But now that will not have any substance.

It is clear that the faithful (except the ignorant lot and the power hungry creamy-layer in the community) is not going to blindly follow the orders of the Bishops like Mar Andrews Thazhath or Mar Daniel Acharuparambil. Because whenever the church has sponsored a Congress candidate, with public statements and pastoral letters, he lost. Edezhath, a close confidant of the high priests, lost by over 70,000 votes to an LDF independent in 2004 [via]. Thrissur in particular has a history of failing the over-confident power politicians. History has it that when Karunakaran contested from Thrissur he was defeated and when his son Muraleedharan contested from Thrissur in the very next polls, he too was defeated. In those two years, Thrissurians decided to send a noble man, V V Raghavan (of CPI), to parliament. And this year, it will be very interesting to see the results.

(Image source: Internet)